这个作业是根据现有场景来研究未来股票、期权等收益

Advanced Company Valuation (BUS197070) – Coursework 2
Q1. 根据共识,HerbieH Media的1年远期市盈率为18倍
收益。较行业平均水平15.0倍有20%的溢价。
您可以根据收入增长,回报和其他来解释同业组PE
假定参数如下。
同行
净资产收益率17.0%
ROE’(长期)9.5%
COE 8.2%
克6.0%
LT g’4.2%
年金增长期3
PE 1.8的年金部分
PE 13.2的永久部分
P / Et + 1 15倍
i)从上面解释主要假设或驱动因素之间的理论关系
和它们暗示的PE倍数。 (8分)
ii)如何使用驱动因素或假设与PE之间的这种关系来解释
HerbieH与同行之间的相对PE估值? (5分)
iii)提供相对倍数微分的原理。也就是说,使用两阶段
模型,确定哪些假设和前景可以证明Herbie-H进行交易
较“平均”同等倍数高20%。 (8分)
iv)提供两个可能破坏该分析有效性的原因。 (4分)
Q2。意味着NV的1年远期NOPAT交易价格为10.0倍。如果距离今天有一年的时间
以11.0倍的1年期远期交易,但1年远期NOPAT低5%,净债务为
仍然为零
(a)股票的1年收益是多少? (8分)
(b)如果该业务中的净债务原本相当于EV的一半,并且
绝对值保持不变,收益将是多少? (8分)
(c)何时以EV / EBIT倍数对EV / NOPAT有意义? (4分)
Q3。 Rice Inc是一家成功的医学影像业务公司,总部位于加利福尼亚州,在
纳斯达克。以下是财务摘要,包括两年的历史和三年的财务
您对公司的预测。
下表还包括业务增长的分析,这些业务分解为
再投资的数量以及该投资的增量回报。因此,对于
例如,在第二年,通过投资前期的29%
NOPAT,收益递增35%。第二年的自由现金流为NOPAT
第二年的投资减少(第二年实现增长)。
Rice Inc在预测的第一年的交易价为NOPAT的10.0倍,比收盘价低15%
同行Pelly Inc,进行1年远期预测NOPAT(下表中的3E年)。之一
Inverted的合作伙伴会问您,赖斯应该进行哪些交易。假设我们在
3E年开始,因此3E年是第一个预测年。
a)使用以下数据以及您对两阶段目标NOPAT倍数的了解
模型(第4条)确定Rice Rice应该以1年远期NOPAT进行交易,
EBIT,销售和PE。假设企业没有债务。还假设WACC为
预测的第一阶段为11.0%,此后为9.0%,因为企业面临着降低风险的风险,
达到标准化阶段。 (15分)
b)讨论在以下情况下您的EV / NOPAT倍数可能会如何变化:
相当于WACC的增量投资回报率;(ii)为什么您的倍数不同
从市场上观察到的10.0倍,以及(iii)为什么您的倍数与佩利的倍数不同。 (10
分数)
莱斯公司财务
Q4. You are at your desk at Inverted Capital. and you are looking for a situation which
appears interesting from an investment perspective (non-correlated pay-offs, catalysts) to
bring to the attention of your boss. You steel yourself and decide to address one of
Europe’s longest restructuring stories: ThyssenKrupp.
Your first search comes up with news from the FT on 19th May 2020:
As the coronavirus crisis adds to its mounting debts, the beleaguered German group will put businesses
with a combined annual turnover of approximately €6bn up for sale, including its stainless steel plant
in Italy and plant-building unit.
https://www.ft.com/content/eca71153-0514-402c-b32d-acb4f0584879
Your search also comes up with the news from the FT on 27th February 2020:
Thyssenkrupp has clinched what is expected to be one of the largest ever buyout deals in Europe by
agreeing to sell its elevator division to private equity groups Advent and Cinven for €17.2bn.
https://www.ft.com/content/1ad259f2-598b-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc
and then an earlier article
“Thyssenkrupp shares leapt 20 percent on Friday as investors rushed to cover bearish bets after the
conglomerate announced plans to list its best business, a move long hoped-for by investors…
Thyssenkrupp is considering a carve-out or listing of its elevators business after abandoning plans to
split itself up with a cross-shareholding structure and pulling the plug on a joint venture with Tata
Steel.” (Reuters 10th May 2019).
Look into and prepare a briefing note on the situation. The note should include at least the
following:
Contrast the original carve-out (subsidiary IPO) plan with a pure demerger and the
ultimate buy-out by private equity.
(a) How do the transactions differ?
(b) What is motivating the parties involved?
(c) What change of ownership is taking place if any?
(d) Is there any cash being raised or paid?
(e) If you were to model the sale versus a carve-out, describe a few of the key pro forma
adjustments you would expect to make to the income statement and balance sheet of
Thyssen?
The note does not need to include any quantitative financial analysis or valuation work,
although you are free to mention a few figures. The question is designed to have you think
about the differences between spin-offs, carve outs, divestitures, and how you might
consider modelling them. Recall, at the end of Lecture 5 we included a SOTP of Thyssen
from Morgan Stanley. Stick to a maximum of 1,500, less if you feel it’s appropriate.
(30 marks)


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