本次澳洲代写是一个决策研究相关的paper

Background: Higher quality decision processes tend to lead to better decision outcomes. However, sometimes good decisions can result in bad outcomes (i.e., we experience “bad luck”) or poor decisions can have good outcomes (i.e., we experience “dumb luck”). An example of dumb luck would be a novice poker player who bets a lot of a money due to incorrectly evaluating the cards, but then wins because the last card revealed is the one card in the deck that turns the player’s poor cards into winning ones. In this assignment you will focus on some cases when your decision quality and decision outcome were not aligned.

What you will do

In your assignment you must address the following questions. Answer each question separately and identify your answer with the appropriate question number:

1a. Describe a decision in which you think the decision quality was good but the outcome poor (i.e., you experienced “bad luck”)? Make clear why the outcome was poor. Note that you may obscure or change details to maintain your privacy. (10 marks)

1b. Describe how the way you made the decision in 1a was of good quality. (5 marks)

1c. Propose how a heuristic or bias described in the modules may have influenced your 1a decision. Its relevance is part of the marking criteria. You should:
Clearly define the heuristic or bias

Describe how it could have affected your decision

Specify whether you think it had a good, bad, or neutral impact on your decision

Consider how strong an impact you think it had on your final decision (20 marks)

1d. How could you have improved the process by which you made the 1a decision? (10 marks)

2a. Describe a decision in which you think the decision quality was poor but the outcome good (i.e., you experienced “dumb luck”)? Make clear why the outcome was good. Note that you may obscure or change details to maintain your privacy. (10 marks)

2b. Describe how the way you made the decision in 2a was poor quality.

2c. Propose how a heuristic or bias described in the modules may have influenced your 2a decision. Its relevance is part of the marking criteria, and it must be different to the heuristic or bias described in 1c.

You should:

Clearly define the heuristic or bias
Describe how it could have affected your decision
Specify whether you think it had a good, bad, or neutral impact on your decision
Consider how strong an impact you think it had on your final decision (20 marks)

2d. How could you have improved the process by which you made the 2a decision? (10 marks)

3. Which was easier to think of an example of, bad luck or dumb luck? Why do you think it could be
easier to think of one or the other?
(10 marks)
(5 marks)


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