- (3 points) For each argument, identify the premises and the conclusion. Classify each argument as 1) deductively valid, 2) inductively valid, or 3) invalid or weak. Briefly describe your reasoning behind your choice.
- The swine flu vaccine was tested on 10,000 people. None of them got swine flu. I should get vaccinated since I don’t want to catch the flu.
- On June 3, there were 24,789 people on the beach in Santa Monica. One out of every three people had a radio on. There were 8,263 radios playing.
- A survey agency conducted three polls to collect voter opinions. The first poll shows Candidate Jones leads Smith 55% to 45%. The second poll shows Jones leading 70% to 30%. The third poll shows Jones leading 62% to 38%. The majority of voters prefer Candidate Jones to Candidate Smith.
- (3 points) In class, we have discussed existing literature that uses instrumental variable methods to examine the causal effect of education on labor market outcomes. Specifically, some studies have used ‘quarter of birth’ or ‘distance to nearest college’ as instruments for years of education.
- Briefly discuss whether you consider these two instruments to be “good” instruments.
- Briefly summarize what the literature’s consensus is regarding the OLS vs. IV estimates of the return to education.
- (4 points) Describe each of the following items for these two papers: Baker et al (2008) and Maestas et al (2013). For each paper, provide your answer in bullet points.
- The economic question investigated in the paper
- The method of analysis
- The dataset used
- The main findings (maximum three)
Note: When you describe the main findings, be specific. For example, instead of describing “college enrollment increased significantly,” a better description would be “receiving Scholarship X led to a 10% increase in college enrollment in New York.”
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