•处于低能量状态，鸟类在活动中处于静止状态或静止不动； •处于高进入状态，鸟在附近移动很多。

## date_time msa wind_speed saws_temp hrseg
dat <-read.csv（“ Verreauxs.accel.txt”，sep =“ \ t”）head（dat）
## 1 2013-04-16 13:03:44 0.23787533
## 2 2013-04-16 13:05:38 0.09222497
## 3 2013-04-16 13:07:27 0.27394695
## 4 2013-04-16 13:37:51 0.28776082
## 5 2013-04-16 13:39:44 0.59848213
## 6 2013-04-16 13:41:36 0.12466199
3.6 16.5 1
3.6 16.5 1
3.6 16.5 1
3.6 16.5 5
3.6 16.5 5
3.6 16.5 5

1个
•MSA：我们的观察
•wind_speed：风速（m / s）•saws_temp：温度（摄氏度）

yi | Z，μ，σ〜N（μZ，σZ2）。

Pr（Z = 2）= pi的分布，可能因人而异。

•您可以使用所需的任何实验性设置，但应以书面形式证明选择的合理性。
•您应该做一些基本的事前预测检查。
•您应该进行一些后验预测检查，并评论模型的拟合度，包括任何

logit（pi）=β0+β1wind+β2temp。
•编写斯坦代码以适合这些模型
•使用后验预测检查来评论两个模型的拟合程度。
•使用留一法交叉验证选择最佳模型并解释选择。

•一种是从具有2个组件的模型中模拟数据
•一种从具有3个组成部分的模型中模拟数据的模型

Assignment instructions and marking information

This should be submitted as a single PDF via Quercus by 12pm (Midday) on 16 April, 2021. The assignment should be produced using RMarkdown, R, and Stan.

• Each task is worth 10%
• All code for performing each task must be present. If there is no code you will lose most marks.
• Each task requires some reflective writing. Make sure you write things! In particular, there is no single

solution to this task, so the justification and interpretation of the steps is important! Two otherwise

identical solutions with different justifications and interpretations could receive very different marks.

• Each task requires the production of several plots and figures. These plots should be cleanly laid out

with adequate captions, markings, labels, and legends.

This is an assignment that uses real data. As such, you should be prepared for the model to possibly be a poor fit for the data and you should discuss this if it occurs.

Modelling animal movement

A key task in ecology is understanding how environmental conditions affect animal behaviour. In this assignment we will look at how environmental factors change how raptors move.

Raptors are large birds that cover a lot of ground by gliding. This requires some specific environmental conditions, so it’s plausible to imagine that a raptor would have two types of movement state:

A low energy state, where the bird is preening or resting and not moving around a lot; and A high engery state, where the bird is moving around a lot.

There is no way to know whether or not a raptor is in a high or low energy state at any given period of time.

An appropriate measure of movement is the minimum specific acceleration (MSA), which is given for a single raptor in the attached data. The correct scale to consider MSA on is the log-scale.

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